Surge into Afghanistan?? Are you sure?

China Matters points to a recent series from the Asia Times' correspondent Syed Saleem Shahzad who writes about his recent travel through the Northwest Frontier Province ("On the Militant Trail"):

"the disturbing message of Shahzad's report is that the time for a return to the status quo ante, or any other easy solution, may be long past. With the Taliban entrenched, emboldened, and determined to substitute its rule for the government writ that has traditionally run in Pashtun affairs, it will be very difficult for the United States and the central government of Pakistan--two disliked and discredited antagonists--to dislodge them."

This is yet another reason why continuing to do the same old thing, like this

a secret report from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to President Obama recommends a shift in the military mission in Afghanistan to concentrate solely on combatting the Taliban and al-Qaida and leave the "hearts and minds" aspect of the war to other U.S. agencies and NATO... hand [establish[ing] good governance, law enforcement, economics, education, etc., ....over to the State Justice, Agriculture departments and others.

Especially when the militants disrupt your main supply routes

Supplies intended for NATO forces in Afghanistan were suspended [February 3] after Taliban militants blew up a highway bridge in the Khyber Pass region, a lawless northwestern tribal area straddling the border with Afghanistan.

in exactly the same area where those militants are now

strikingly successful in creating an identity for itself beyond a militarized jihadist force, establishing itself as the face of a conservative Islamic movement beyond the tribal areas and in the relatively developed non-urban areas of the NWFP, using its military muscle to promote sharia law, enforce puritanical social norms, advance Islamist ideas of equity and social justice, and even flirting with populism in attacks on the secularized Pakistani political and economic elite, their local adherents, the feudal lords or "khans", and the armed forces that seek to protect them.

Still think an extra 30-50,000 U.S. soldiers are going to make a difference in this losing hand?

Me neither.

(AP photo from the New York Times)